1978

To the editor:

RecentlyRobert S. McNamara, president of the World Bank, addressed theUrological section of the American College of Surgeons and said that"Unless poverty and the population problem are overcome the resultmay be a world that none of us want to live in."

He furthernoted that "unless these problems receive more urgent attention thanthey are getting now, they will in time seriously threaten thepolitical and social stability not only of the developing countriesbut of the developed nations as well."

He detailedthe steps the developed nations must take to improve the economiesand the annual per capita income of the poverty stricken countriesand insisted that he is going to preach that gospel until the welldeveloped nations of the world take action; i.e., increased financialand technical aid!

In discussingthe population problem, he noted that there are now more than fourbillion people living on this planet and that it took mankind morethan a million years to reach a population of one billion. However,the second billion required only 120 years; the third billion 32years; and the fourth billion 15 years. At the current global growthrate of about two percent, the world's population will add a fifthbillion in about 11 years and some 6 billion will be living in theyear 2000! To mathematicians the reason is obvious -- populationincreases geometrically or exponentially and not arithmetically!

To dramatizethe impact of geometrical progression, the story is told of anemperor who wished to reward one of his faithful subjects and askedhim to name any wish. His reply to his emperor, who was a devotedchess fan, was: "I am a poor man and my wants are few. All I ask foris for you to put one grain of rice on the first square of your chessboard and double it on each succeeding square."

Little didthe emperor realize the extent of his commitment! On the 21st square,there were one million grains of rice; on the 40th square, onebillion grains; and on the 64th or final square, there would be 185quadrillion grains or enough to cover the entire earth of a distanceof six inches! The results of the geometric progression are franklyfrightening when applied to human reproduction.

In an effortto clarify the impact of a certain birth rate upon the populationgrowth the number 70 is critical; i.e., if the birth rate is onepercent, the population doubles in 70 years; if two percent, thepopulation doubles in 35 years, if three percent, in 24 years, iffour percent, in 18 years, and five percent in 14 years. To attainpopulation stabilization a growth rate of less than one percent wouldbe necessary.

In LatinAmerica and Africa the rate is approximately 3.5 percent, doublingthe peoples in these areas in 20 years. In the Philippines it isexpected that the present 42 million will reach 100 million by theyear 2000, and in the same interval of time, Indonesia's 130 millionwill reach 260 million and India will reach 1 billion! Furthermore,if a mandatory decree could be enforced that would limit all familiesto two children, there would still be five billion people by the year2000.

Of furtherinterest is that Calcutta, a cultural sink, will have 30 million bythe year 2000, and Mexico City with its birth rate of 5.7 percent(Machismo) will double in 12 years, and for further emphasis, Brazil(Machismo) has doubled its population 14 times in the past 100 years.The country of Mexico, which at present is exporting its wetbacksillegally because of a lack of job opportunities, will increase itspopulation from a present 60 million to one of 135 million by theyear 2000 and this is only 22 years hence!

Anotherinteresting aspect of the population problem is its structure: In thedeveloped countries the median age is 31 years, whereas in thedeveloping nations, the median age is 19 years. In the emergingnations 40 percent of the population is less than 15 years of age! Ifhell hath no fury like a scorned woman, can you imagine what it wouldbe like with an army of neglected and depressed young people?

Another wayof looking at the population problem is to consider the rate of foodproduction. Currently worldwide birth rate is two percent while theincrease in food production is 2.5 percent. This seems reassuringuntil one notes that the rate of food demand is three percent due toincreasing affluence and rising expectations. Of real concern to usis that the world grain reserves in 1961 was 95 days and by the year1975 had fallen to 30 days.

NormanBorlaug's (Nobel Laureate) Green Revolution has given us a pausethrough his skillful use of hybrid seed, irrigation systems, and themassive use of fertilizer, but it is at best only a pause. To be sureaqua-culture and an increase or yield from the sea will also providesome additional time but there is no way that food production cankeep up with the increase in population if it runs its presentcourse.

Anotherconcern regarding food production is that virtually all of thereadily exploitable land in the world (3.5 billion acres) is alreadyunder cultivation and the vast majority of the remaining land isunsatisfactory for agriculture. In Australia only one percent of theland is cultivatable, five percent in Canada 10 percent in China, andin Japan 80 percent of the land is mountainous! It is also claimedthat 6.6 billion areas could be added to our agricultural productionbut only at a cost of $400 to $1,000 per acre: i.e., the cost of thewater, irrigation, fertilizers, etc.

Lastly as ourcities expand more and more land is being taken away fromagriculture, and this fact should be obvious enough for those of uswho live in the Connecticut Valley and have witnessed the gradualdecrease in the amount of farmland.

The UnitedStates is in a fortunate position and blessed with the largestcontiguous land mass of fertile soil, good growing climate, andadequate rainfall, and our best growing land lies below the 45thparallel (North Dakota) whereas Russia's best growing land lies abovethe 45th parallel. America, together with Canada, is essentially thebread basket of the world, and may someday have to play God and haveto decide who will and who will not receive our grain, and unpleasantprospect at best.

While we areblessed with nature's abundance, climatologists tell us that theclimate of the world is gradually changing in a direction that is notencouraging and that a mild drought in our Great Plains could be adisaster. Recently we have been aware of such a possibility by thedroughts in Southern California and Texas.

Abel Leader,a urologist in Houston, and a prominent advocate of Vasectomy as oneform of sterilization, also notes that there are other aspects of thepopulation explosion that are of deep concern beside the sheerincrease in numbers. He speaks of the population implosion as peopleeverywhere migrate to the cities to seek a better life and in sodoing bring added burdens to our already jammed metropolitan areas.In addition he speaks of the population implosion where people ofmixed races are being crowded together in our cities, and gangs runamuck asserting their ethnic supremacy or vie for control of thelimited land areas in their communities.

Anotherreason for the sudden increase in our population has been the fall inour death rate resulting from our vastly improved medical care. Theuse of antibiotics, including Penicillin, has saved more lives in 10years than all the lives lost in human history. As a practicalexample, the life expectancy in India in 1940 was 29 years and hadrisen to 55 years by the year 1975! This is true all over theworld.

A finalaspect of the problem is also important. It is estimated that in theUnited States approximately 20 percent of all births are unwanted andunplanned, and Dr. Leader says 21 percent of the births in Houstonare illegitimate, and 25 percent of these births run in the 11-15years of age group! In his city, there were 3962 cases of neglectedand abused children in 1971, and by 1973 this number had risen to5,100. Lastly, in Houston 60 percent of the welfare costs goes to aiddependent children.

What is to bedone about the population problem? First and foremost, the worldneeds a World Population Policy, and the Third World must beconvinced that planned parenthood is not a form of genocide. Toincrease the death rate is inconceivable so we must lower the birthrate. To do this is an enormous and difficult task and requires theuse of widespread education in family planning. To effect familyplanning ideally requires a cheap, accessible, reversible,non-surgical form of contraception or sterilization and this is notas yet available. Much additional research in reproductive biologywill be required before the ideal situation is at hand.

In themeantime, we have effective means of population control and theyshould be utilized! Organizations like Zero Population Growth andNegative Population Growth are endeavoring to assist in coping withthe population boom, and emphasize the fact that "just as the earthand its resources of land, air, and water are limited, so are thedemands that can be placed upon them."

BernardBerelson in "Beyond Family Planning" answered the question of "Howmany children?" in this manner:

"In the lastanalysis, what will be scientifically available, politicallyacceptable, administratively feasible, economically justifiable, andmorally tolerated depends upon people's perceptions of consequences.If the population problem is considered relatively unimportant oronly moderately important that judgment will not support muchinvestment of effort. If it is considered urgent, much more can andwill be done. The fact is that, despite the large forward stridestaken in international recognition of the problem in the 1960s, therestill does not exist an informed, firm, and constant conviction inhigh circles that this is a matter with truly great implications forhuman welfare."

Unimpededpopulation growth means malnourishment of most of mankind (50 percentat the present time), an increase in pollution and crime, the erosionof our non-renewable natural resources, the fouling of our lakes, andrivers, and despoilation of the natural beauty of our planet,faltering power systems, and finally seething unrest in our citiescausing political instabilities, conflict, and perpetual strife.

Theexponential growth of population is the greatest danger to mankindwith no parallel in past history, but man of all animals is capableof subjugating nature to his will and hopefully can control hisdestiny.

A final noteon the problem. Look at the minute hand of your watch and as itpasses from one minute to the next, 172 people will have been addedto mankind. On Feb. 1 of the year the World Population clock read4,336,395,293!

"There arenone so deafÉ"

Charles E. Jacobson Jr., M.D.

45 Wyllys St.

Manchester, CT